Say what? You can't be serious. Don't
you read the papers or watch TV? Isn’t Washington still dysfunctional? Aren’t
the two parties still miles apart on the big ticket issues? Aren't 13 million
Americans still unemployed? Isn't there war or mayhem wherever you look?
Persistent unemployment is still at the
top of the worry list. But in late January 2013 the number of Americans filing new
claims for unemployment fell to its lowest point in five years.
In the same month, housing starts – the
same sector that brought the economy to its knees in 2008 – were up 8.1%, 36.9% over December 2011, according
to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, another
trend indicator, is at a six-year high. What makes this particularly interesting
is that the stock market’s performance reflects investor confidence in future
prospects, rather like the Las Vegas crap tables, more than it reflects factual
events.
For the all-important energy sector, the International
Energy Agency projects that the US will replace Saudi Arabia as the world's
premier oil and gas producer within the next four years.
At least temporarily reducing government gridlock, the Republican Party has postponed
the threat of a second fiscal cliff by kicking the debt ceiling down the road until May,
in a retreat from the earlier threat to shut down the government if necessary
to have their way. A price will still be demanded by conservatives in the form
of drastic tax reductions and program cuts.
What is new is the sound of at least some ice braking in the protracted
political freeze. Ironically, the US
budget deficit has actually been shrinking at the fastest pace than at any time
since World War II, according to investors.com.
After a decade of handwringing and
breast-beating about the so-called “decline” in strength, influence, and
relevance of the US in world affairs, accompanied by numerous public opinion
polls showing a majority fearing a worse future for their children, a USA Today/Gallup
poll in late fall 2012 shows that a majority of Americans – 54% – now believes
that they will be better off four years from now.
The above collection of data focuses on America’s economy and society. But a footnote has to ask: what about foreign wars, revolutions, Islamist militants, and the daunting but inescapable task of running down the jihadis who, led by Al Qaeda, have targeted the US? This is the primary agenda for the CIA and US Special Forces operations, backed by remote drone and other technology, including invisible but essential cyber defense. China will be a competitor and Russia a troublemaker, and Iran and North Korea potential nuclear outlaws. But what else is new? The threat remains as before, as does the commitment to prevail over terrorists.
Without minimizing the very real human
and other costs of conflict, consider a little-noticed but larger reality:casualties from warfare are at a historic low. Small wars, insurgencies, and barbaric
behavior by tyrants are permanent feature of the global landscape, typically in
regions in early stages of development, literacy, and peaceful democratic change. In an earlier age such local explosions would
never have made even the back page of Western newspapers. Today, competitive
news outlets and deadline-driven journalists, commentators and pundits convey
the impression of a planet aflame with war, when the opposite is true for the
bigtime conflicts that used to routinely slaughter thousands.
Indeed, the scale of warfare has
actually declined dramatically. Far fewer human beings are being killed today
by military weaponry than in the past. In
his latest book, Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker makes the point
dramatically: "The decline in violence may be the most significant and
least appreciated development in the history of our species."
Bad things are still happening and the
future has a habit of being unpredictable. But the evidence seems to show
an uneven but nevertheless welcome and widespread trend: things are looking up.